Comments on Not Economics: Using Tradesports.com data

Yes, I understand Bush wins if he is holding a Dou...

2004-10-25T17:40:00.000-07:00

Yes, I understand Bush wins if he is holding a Double FizzBin, but what if it's not at midnight? Then again, a Double Fizzbin only beats a regular FizzBin on Tuesdays, so since election day is on a Tuesday, would all voting need to be held at midnight? What about the different midnights? Shouldn't we take the square of the difference between a FizzBin and a Double FizzBin, subtracting the inverse sqaure root of price (x - real money) * Andrea's hat size. Only then will we really know if the FizzBin will trump the Double Fizzbin, on Tuesday, at midnight. Whew, now I get it! *Forget it Andrea, this is total BS. Kerry will beat Bush, and strongly, because there are a lot of people who will remain quiet until they vote--moderater Republicans and most Dems and Independents. I live in a traditional Republican state, although it usually only involves a 5% spread. I've quietly been drawing people out for the last year and lots of people HATE Bush, but don't want to make much noise in public out of fear. The voting booth is private!

This has got to be the dumbest idea I've seen in a...

2004-10-25T17:29:00.000-07:00

This has got to be the dumbest idea I've seen in a long time. I had a great laugh.

The worth of these predictions would be compromise...

2004-10-25T16:31:00.000-07:00

The worth of these predictions would be compromised if the supporters of one of the contenders decided to purchase a good showing at Tradesports.com as part of an election spin strategy. This action would be rational if it were a 'relatively' inexpensive way to attract voters by looking more like a winner.

If this is the case, there is clearly some money to be made by an astute investor.